Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov approved the forecast for the country’s social and economic development for 2025-2029 and draft laws on the national budget for 2025-2027 and on the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund of Kazakhstan for 2025-2027 during the government meeting on Aug. 27.
According to Bektenov, the forecast was based on international organizations’ estimates for world economic development and the condition of external commodities markets. For instance, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the global economy will grow by 3.3% in 2025, and the oil price will be $78 per barrel.
Growth is expected in all sectors of the nation’s economy. The manufacturing industry is expected to grow from 5.4% in 2025 to 6.6% in 2029. The average annual growth in the mining industry will be 2.9%. Oil production will increase from 97.2 million tons in 2025 to 104.8 million tons in 2029.
The average annual growth in agriculture will be 5.3%, in construction — 9.3%, in transport services — 8.2% and in trade — 7.1%. Goods exports are projected to increase from $82.3 billion in 2025 to $90.0 billion in 2029, and imports will increase from $61.3 billion to $67.5 billion.
Inflation is set at 5.5-7.5% in 2025 and 5-6% in 2026, with a subsequent decrease to 5% in 2027-2029.
Revenues for 2025 are projected at 21.7 trillion tenge (US$45.2 billion). Also, a guaranteed transfer from the National Fund of 2 trillion tenge (US$4.2 billion) is planned for next year.
Some 9.8 trillion tenge (US$20.4 billion) will be allocated to the social sphere in 2025, with an increase of 794 billion tenge (US$1.65 billion) compared to 2024.
In 2025, the average pension in Kazakhstan will be 96,562 tenge (US$201).
The government plans to develop transport infrastructure for 568 billion tenge (US$1.2 billion).
Expenses to support entrepreneurship, small and medium businesses will total 204 billion tenge (US$424.7 million).
Pylyp is an experienced private banker and asset manager.